Eating Crow

steffensen wrote: A few of you know I am an engineer at one of AGCO's divisions and I have posted a couple of times saying we cannot use hersay to state facts. I also said we should wait till the Q1 numbers. Well here is a link to the quarterly reports for CNH, Deere, and AGCO. Also a link to the AGCO webcast on the report today. I looked through them breifly and I have already got my fork and knife ready. Byron, Redline, or GBACBFAN, nice and crispy please. CNH http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9Mzc3OTAyfENoaWxkSUQ9Mzc2ODU3fFR5cGU9MQ==&t=1   Deere http://www.deere.com/en_US/ir/media/pdf/financialdata/reports/2010/2010_firstquarter_confcallslides.pdf   AGCO http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9NDI3NDR8Q2hpbGRJRD0tMXxUeXBlPTM=&t=1 Webcast: http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=108419&p=irol-eventDetails&EventID=3035099     Oh, I better put in a disclaimer also. Even though I am an employee of AGCO, my posts and comments have been my own opinion. Any statments I make are my own, but that is why I wanted to post and own up to it.

Interesting that these guys all present their data a little differently. But looking just at Ag/Turf equipment, North American sales, Q1 2010 vs Q1 2009, looks like:

Edited by Dave(inMA) - 27 Apr 2010 at 8:59am

Nowversatile, I assume you are saying that tongue in cheek?  Maybe it's time for Versatile to step up to the plate and buy the orange, Gleaner and Hesston divisions!

I'm with Redline. I think AGCO has done in the orange line. I don't think they could bring it back now if they had to. Just as well. Maybe someone with a sound business ethic and appreciation for continuation of heritage could pick up the line and bring it back to its' deserved glory. I could only hope.  Steffenson, I admire the fact that you came back on here to discuss these findings. A lot of people with less fortitude would have run. You and others like you are what companies like AGCO need in leadership positions, instead of their current roster.

Funny how that works. It looks like the "I don't want a Massey" attitude isn't just in my neighborhood...

Brian Jasper co. Ia wrote: Funny how that works. It looks like the "I don't want a Massey" attitude isn't just in my neighborhood...

It is a pretty strong sentiment in Story County as well.

I don't trust AGCO's numbers.  Historically I think they fudge things to make sectors look good to justify moves they want to make.  As an example they've put engineering costs on manure spreaders when the design hasn't changed for 20 years.  I believe they put the bulk of their administrative, engineering, advertising, overhead, etc. costs on the NA side to make NA look worse that it is.  I think it's not a dumb thing to do because of the tax laws but when the tax laws change to include income overseas I think you'll get a different picture.  Plus I'm not smart enough and don't really care to learn what all those wall street minded terms mean.

Having said that, AGCO really stunk it up.  They see positive cash flow by the end of 2010 and I see them getting worse.  There are people still buying orange right now but that will end.  I mean I don't think it takes a rocket scientist to figure out that killing the color that gave you the funds to pursue other colors in a color centric industry is questionable.  Doing it while it still outsells your other brands 4 to 1 is mind blowing.  Doing it during a recession where every sale is going to count is absolutely crazy.  Which lends me to believe Martin is insane. 

I'm cleaning up my AGCO today or tomorrow so I can take pictures for me to sell it.  In my book AGCO is running out of time.  I think the orange line can be saved but Martin will have to go and some logic will have to be restored.  Like make an AGCO brand with different colors.  Make it AGCO/MF, AGCO/Challenger, AGCO/AC, etc.  You know my thoughts on this. 

As a related point, I read the new Advantage magazine and reading between the lines the dealers aren't happy.  Out of one side of AGCO's mouth they say were doing it to save money by not having different brands and on the other side they say don't worry parts are ok because their not different at all except in color.  So WHERE ARE YOU SAVING MONEY?  I'm sure they won't have to advertise AGCO anymore or put out their brochures but if you've paid attention the AGCO brochures, web site, advertisements, etc. they are all sub par to MF and Challenger.  So they cut the brand they spend the least on.  Go figure.

I don't think you have to eat crow cause I don't remember you saying they'd do well.  Maybe they'll rebound.

I think maybe some of the dealer guys on here who say guys want to buy the latest and greatest and don't want an inexpensive option should look at South America sales.  I'm sure those went through the roof because of the peoples tractor.

Anyway, I've said way too much.

Byron

Martin seems to think it doesn't have to do with dropping orange:
"In the North American region, sales in the first quarter of 2010 declined approximately 30.5% compared to the first quarter of 2009, excluding favorable currency translation impacts. Working capital initiatives to manage dealer inventory levels and lower sales of utility tractors and hay products produced the decline. "





Edited by Byron WC in SW Wi - 27 Apr 2010 at 1:32pm

Yes I did. I am very interested to see how that one plays out and if others will follow.

Edited by steffensen - 27 Apr 2010 at 4:50pm