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Corn production well off

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URL: https://www.allischalmers.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=207998
Printed Date: 18 Oct 2025 at 8:33am
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Topic: Corn production well off
Posted By: DMiller
Subject: Corn production well off
Date Posted: 30 Aug 2025 at 10:03am
Do not know of other areas but not seeing any reality of good in corn here. A few friends and contacts been pulling sample ears as stalks dry down, silks are mostly dried up, a few never pollinated and remain white with the stalk dead, shucked ears tell the true story.
For four counties around us ears are 1/2 -2/3 filled out, kernels are small and already deep dimpled, one sample tested at 27% moisture where estimations on fields that generated 210-240 b/a just a few years ago MIGHT make 150 this go, as well will be docked for small grain size and poor grade outs. Several are considering letting beef onto the fields as a feed out as will not regain the costs to harvest where insurance will not pay anything.



Replies:
Posted By: DougG
Date Posted: 30 Aug 2025 at 10:09am
You know ,, I listen to the Big 550 in the morning and they have an hour segment of Ag news, the big Farm tour was a couple weeks ago and they reported Illinois corn was very disappointing, looked good on the outside but kinda alot like you described Dave,,


Posted By: AC7060IL
Date Posted: 30 Aug 2025 at 11:22am
Our area observed 10.7” of rains in the month of July alone (July 6-20th) !!
What does that mean? If your corn pollinated towards the earlier timing (end of June & up til July 6th), it probably did ok & may exhibit good kernel development?
But if it pollinated during that heavy rainy period, lots of pollen grains could have been washed out of tassel &/or washed off ear silks, thus leading to No or very poor kernel development.
Corn tassels usually only shed pollen from 10~12am til 6pm? each day.
And good Viable pollen only lives about 12 hours? Also if your area experienced a drought prior to & during pollination, dry/hotter air temps could damage pollen production within the tassel, rendering it sterile? If so, any amount being shed is pointless.
To further complicate, ear silks are made up of 90% water. So any drought conditions could also limit silk growth.
IF,,, a field has no or reduced soil compaction that could enable good deep (5-8’?) corn root growth? Then, healthier plant’s roots may be tapped into lower ground water which may enable normal silk growth even during a drought?


Posted By: Lars(wi)
Date Posted: 30 Aug 2025 at 12:57pm
Will be interested to follow along and see if the USDA prediction of 188.8 bu per acre(nationwide) is accurate.

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I tried to follow the science, but it was not there. I then followed the money, and that’s where I found the science.


Posted By: steve(ill)
Date Posted: 30 Aug 2025 at 2:39pm
planted BEANS here this year... First time in about 8 years..

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Like them all, but love the "B"s.


Posted By: DMiller
Date Posted: 30 Aug 2025 at 3:39pm
Now the Beans here, standing Tall, nice bushiness, loads of Pods.


Posted By: DougG
Date Posted: 30 Aug 2025 at 6:30pm
Around here too , but the $$$$ are low,,,


Posted By: KJCHRIS
Date Posted: 01 Sep 2025 at 1:44am
Sunday morning (8/31/25) farm talk show had a short clip about "corn rust" and "tar spot" damages in some midwest corn fields. Causes early dry down of ears/plants. IF you have both in a field it can really hurt yield in what a few weeks ago was a really good field of corn. 

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AC 200, CAH, AC185D bareback, AC 180D bareback, D17 III, WF. D17 Blackbar grill, NF. D15 SFW. Case 1175 CAH, Bobcat 543B,


Posted By: dr p
Date Posted: 02 Sep 2025 at 7:06pm
Everything that could have gone wrong with early corn happened around here. Too much rain, then no rain at fill. And tassel disease with a little tar spot on top. The late corn (after 20june) looks better but if we get an early frost, it doomed. I have been growing more bmr sudan sorghum for silage. A little less yield but a lot less imputs. I add some dried beet pulp at the blower if its too wet. With corn at 4 dollars a bushel and max yield here at 150 bushels per acre, i think long and hard about just buying feed


Posted By: jvin248
Date Posted: 02 Sep 2025 at 7:18pm
.

Seems like a lot of the hybrid/GMO seed supply was geared for drought and then we get a lot of rain...

.


Posted By: DMiller
Date Posted: 03 Sep 2025 at 2:39am
Originally posted by jvin248 jvin248 wrote:

.

Seems like a lot of the hybrid/GMO seed supply was geared for drought and then we get a lot of rain...

.

Best laid plans then nature steps up to bat.


Posted By: DMiller
Date Posted: 03 Sep 2025 at 12:03pm
This was a Ear furnished as Local was inspecting it, knows is Junk.

Is one of my Work truck tools, a Stanley 1/2" Wrench.




Posted By: plummerscarin
Date Posted: 03 Sep 2025 at 10:37pm
Co-op manager in bear camp with us says that is quite common. this along with a few other maladies. He believes the yields will be much lower than predicted


Posted By: IBWD MIke
Date Posted: 04 Sep 2025 at 6:40am
My crops all look pretty good. Some wind damage in the corn from July.


Posted By: Ben (MI)
Date Posted: 04 Sep 2025 at 12:36pm
I'm in an area of irrigated specialty crops and farm small fields the bto guys don't want. My corn will probably make 125 and the beans 35-40. Good corn for me is 150 and beans 40. My ground is pretty sandy with some clay mixed in but nowhere enough. Also have some gravely hills to go with some beach sand. I've had around 3" of rain since pollination and we've had more 90 degree days than usual. I hope you all have a safe and successful harvest.




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Part time farming with a 1980 7060 and 1984 F3 hydro.


Posted By: DMiller
Date Posted: 09 Sep 2025 at 5:22pm
Will soon know as Harvest in Full Swing now.


Posted By: tadams(OH)
Date Posted: 10 Sep 2025 at 2:21pm
The rain will probably start also


Posted By: Lars(wi)
Date Posted: 10 Sep 2025 at 7:44pm
There is a couple ongoing discussions over on LinkedIn, regarding the commodities prices going into harvest. General consensus is #2 yellow corn will average $3.90 per bu, with the average farmer ‘losing’ .85 cents per bushel. If my Jethro Bodine rithmatic is correct, that’s puts the average production cost per bushel of corn at $4.75+/-, this is insane.

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I tried to follow the science, but it was not there. I then followed the money, and that’s where I found the science.


Posted By: Tbone95
Date Posted: 11 Sep 2025 at 8:06am
Originally posted by Lars(wi) Lars(wi) wrote:

There is a couple ongoing discussions over on LinkedIn, regarding the commodities prices going into harvest. General consensus is #2 yellow corn will average $3.90 per bu, with the average farmer ‘losing’ .85 cents per bushel. If my Jethro Bodine rithmatic is correct, that’s puts the average production cost per bushel of corn at $4.75+/-, this is insane.

Carrying onward, production estimate is 16.7 billion bushels. Losing $.85 per bushel, collectively $14.195 billion lost.

Yeah something doesn’t add up. I don’t think farmers are quite that big of idiots.


Posted By: DMiller
Date Posted: 12 Sep 2025 at 1:34am
New bigger ?better? Machines at a cost, to plant/harvest more high dollar purchased or leased ground, of crops that make little money yet are deemed as THE crops to grow. And who determined the US farmer needed to do ONLY wheat beans corn rotations? Then WHY?


Posted By: jvin248
Date Posted: 12 Sep 2025 at 7:52pm
.

I picked a few ears where husks were dried down. Counted kernels and plugged in the estimate calculator. 250-300bu/ac! Lol. I have a lot of variability out there and still a lot of green. A while before I can harvest it all and get a real count.

I planted a 50/50 mix of Reid's yellow dent and Jimmy Red, heirlooms, non-gmo.
Working at building a higher protein seed, 3-4x protein of modern corn seed.

No rust, no tar spot.

No inputs. No till. Regen ag techniques.

I expect a lot lower actual yield, but it was fun to see the calculator estimate number.


.


Posted By: plummerscarin
Date Posted: 13 Sep 2025 at 6:03am
I like to play with the calculator also. I have estimates from 175 to 250. Beans very high also. The real answer won't be till they cross the scale.
Would love find out your results after harvest


Posted By: DMiller
Date Posted: 13 Sep 2025 at 9:35am
Also depends of the Docks after Probed.


Posted By: Tbone95
Date Posted: 13 Sep 2025 at 11:52am
Originally posted by DMiller DMiller wrote:

New bigger ?better? Machines at a cost, to plant/harvest more high dollar purchased or leased ground, of crops that make little money yet are deemed as THE crops to grow. And who determined the US farmer needed to do ONLY wheat beans corn rotations? Then WHY?
Well sure, it does depend on what is meant by cost of production. If that includes equipment, land costs, interest, etc then yeah those who have million dollar combines could be hurting. To me, cost of production is costs of inputs. Seed, fertilizer, chemicals, fuel. Then the rest of the costs are overhead spread over all acres. Maybe that’s just me.

As far as I know nobody has ever been forced to grow corn, beans, or wheat. Around here, folks also grow oats, sugar beets, dry beans or black beans, pickles, sunflowers, cherries dairy, beef……a guy just makes his decisions. Having a known market that’s easy to access is nice. As is insurance.


Posted By: Tbone95
Date Posted: 13 Sep 2025 at 11:54am
Originally posted by DMiller DMiller wrote:

Also depends of the Docks after Probed.
Unless you’re a complete careless moron, dockage should be minimal. Though up here, the wrong type of fall weather can leave you with high moisture and that can really add up.


Posted By: DMiller
Date Posted: 13 Sep 2025 at 12:12pm
There are and always been careless Morons in the Fields. They tend to thin themselves out over time.

With Land prices here over $10k/ac, corn will not ever "Profit", neither will beans or any other crop, I have watched as large investors have bought up Thousands of Acres at just such pricing, if sit on it a hundred years may get their moneys back, but not by Farming or Leasing, Does make a Great tax Write Down for the Big Money Goons.


Posted By: jvin248
Date Posted: 13 Sep 2025 at 3:17pm
.

The farm I grew up on was sold by the family back in the 1960s because no crop could pay the taxes, let alone "$10k" financing.

It sold three or four times after that until it sprouted condos.

That's the problem if you have a farm just beyond where the sidewalk ends.

.


Posted By: DMiller
Date Posted: 13 Sep 2025 at 6:20pm
Out here are well beyond, 'The Sidewalks and Condos'.  STILL Flatland ground to the North of us going on $10-15K/ac (Open Cropland), here where we bought land prices tripled in less than ten years.  A 20ac tract just a few miles away sold for $8700/ac, NO House, NO Barn(s), no structures of any kind, just scrub sapling sprouting pasture.  Electric is 'Close, No well on site and no county system.  Phone, Internet, any additional Grandiose appointments, Lacking.

Funny is as some properties go into Tax or Failed Loans sales, Mennonites and Amish are jumping in, CASH.  From Martinsburg W to Marling, from Buell N to New Hartford is nearly ALL Amish now.  Similar from Bowling Green to New London and W out past Center they are picking up 'Distressed Properties'.


Posted By: Tbone95
Date Posted: 13 Sep 2025 at 7:43pm
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. When you look at buying land, of COURSE if you borrow the money you will not profit. But if you have the money, you’re good. You bought yourself a real, tangible, generally appreciating asset. If you can make money over the cost of inputs, compare that to leaving it in the bank earning a couple percent interest. Have cash flow over cost of inputs, asset appreciates, equity increases, improves balance sheet. Those who pursue this become the” big guy” everyone bitches about. The Norman Rockwell days were over a long time ago.


Posted By: jvin248
Date Posted: 13 Sep 2025 at 9:53pm
Originally posted by DMiller DMiller wrote:

... Mennonites and Amish are jumping in, CASH.  From Martinsburg W to Marling, from Buell N to New Hartford is nearly ALL Amish now.


Hutterites (N US/Canadian menonites/Amish) ave 150 person groups will split and give 75 all the cash to buy new land. Like honey bees swarming. No financing problems. They can easily outbid.

If regular farmers banded together against input corporations and commodity market corporations they could do the same.

.



Posted By: DMiller
Date Posted: 14 Sep 2025 at 5:11am
Originally posted by Tbone95 Tbone95 wrote:

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. When you look at buying land, of COURSE if you borrow the money you will not profit. But if you have the money, you’re good. You bought yourself a real, tangible, generally appreciating asset. If you can make money over the cost of inputs, compare that to leaving it in the bank earning a couple percent interest. Have cash flow over cost of inputs, asset appreciates, equity increases, improves balance sheet. Those who pursue this become the” big guy” everyone bitches about. The Norman Rockwell days were over a long time ago.

The days of NR were NO Property Taxes to the levels seen currently.  That needs to end for AG Real Estate if not ALL Rural Grounds even Homes and land used Solely as Home as the Taxes are killing much of the usable ground as a Purchase for investment or just to live out our days.  


Posted By: Tbone95
Date Posted: 14 Sep 2025 at 7:01am
Originally posted by jvin248 jvin248 wrote:

Originally posted by DMiller DMiller wrote:

... Mennonites and Amish are jumping in, CASH.  From Martinsburg W to Marling, from Buell N to New Hartford is nearly ALL Amish now.


Hutterites (N US/Canadian menonites/Amish) ave 150 person groups will split and give 75 all the cash to buy new land. Like honey bees swarming. No financing problems. They can easily outbid.

If regular farmers banded together against input corporations and commodity market corporations they could do the same.

.


Yeah, and if my aunt had balls she’d be my other uncle.

I’m not saying that to slam you. Just my comment on human nature. As in, it’ll never happen. Form a group like that and as soon as one guy gets a sweetheart deal he stabs everyone else in the back and party over. Basically the Grange. The Mennonite community pull this off, but church based control. Lots of them and Amish here as well. They sold their Indiana property for $12,000 per acre and moved up here for $4,000 per acre. We can’t compete with them.


Posted By: Ray54
Date Posted: 14 Sep 2025 at 7:33pm
Originally posted by jvin248 jvin248 wrote:

Originally posted by DMiller DMiller wrote:

... Mennonites and Amish are jumping in, CASH.  From Martinsburg W to Marling, from Buell N to New Hartford is nearly ALL Amish now.


Hutterites (N US/Canadian menonites/Amish) ave 150 person groups will split and give 75 all the cash to buy new land. Like honey bees swarming. No financing problems. They can easily outbid.

If regular farmers banded together against input corporations and commodity market corporations they could do the same.

.

What common farmer wants to make 75 enemies.LOL Give them 10 years 7 farmers in 99% of cases would not be getting along. Wink Not that many bothers or father sons get along that well. Cry Farmers are as independent a group as you can find.

The Amish share very strong religious believes. That leans in heavily to forgive others. I am sure this helps a lot in their getting along in joint ventures.

No idea what holds a Hutterites together. But again some religious component to them. And all assets are held by the group, from the little I know.


Posted By: Tbone95
Date Posted: 15 Sep 2025 at 7:18am
Originally posted by Ray54 Ray54 wrote:

Originally posted by jvin248 jvin248 wrote:

Originally posted by DMiller DMiller wrote:

... Mennonites and Amish are jumping in, CASH.  From Martinsburg W to Marling, from Buell N to New Hartford is nearly ALL Amish now.


Hutterites (N US/Canadian menonites/Amish) ave 150 person groups will split and give 75 all the cash to buy new land. Like honey bees swarming. No financing problems. They can easily outbid.

If regular farmers banded together against input corporations and commodity market corporations they could do the same.

.


What common farmer wants to make 75 enemies.LOL Give them 10 years 7 farmers in 99% of cases would not be getting along. Wink Not that many bothers or father sons get along that well. Cry Farmers are as independent a group as you can find.

The Amish share very strong religious believes. That leans in heavily to forgive others. I am sure this helps a lot in their getting along in joint ventures.

No idea what holds a Hutterites together. But again some religious component to them. And all assets are held by the group, from the little I know.

Yep.


Posted By: jvin248
Date Posted: 15 Sep 2025 at 9:32am
.

Corteva Agriscience has "a group" of 22,000 employees that work together against all the independent farmers, setting input costs. Expand this to fertilizer, equipment new machines/parts, and banks, are all big teams roughing up individual farmers every year.

Farmers need better internal cohesion. The farmer down the road is not the competition, the corporations at the big far away cities have much more influence on success/failure.

.


Posted By: Ray54
Date Posted: 15 Sep 2025 at 10:40am
Originally posted by jvin248 jvin248 wrote:

.

Corteva Agriscience has "a group" of 22,000 employees that work together against all the independent farmers, setting input costs. Expand this to fertilizer, equipment new machines/parts, and banks, are all big teams roughing up individual farmers every year.

Farmers need better internal cohesion. The farmer down the road is not the competition, the corporations at the big far away cities have much more influence on success/failure.

.

Yep I believe you, but still stand by my previous statement about independent's.

One neighbor and I shared equipment for 30 years. It worked because we our both rather laid back. I tried to keep track the first years as I had a few more acres than he did. He told me we are not going down that road. I know you have more acres in grain. He was also in nut crops.  So when bigger repairs were needed more or less split the cost. But he is a very talented make something out of what is around mechanic. He has retired into wine grapes on his owned acres, and I just have beef cows today. We still have several worthless machines we co own. Still friends, but not the norm.


Posted By: Tbone95
Date Posted: 15 Sep 2025 at 2:51pm
Originally posted by jvin248 jvin248 wrote:

.

Corteva Agriscience has "a group" of 22,000 employees that work together against all the independent farmers, setting input costs. Expand this to fertilizer, equipment new machines/parts, and banks, are all big teams roughing up individual farmers every year.

Farmers need better internal cohesion. The farmer down the road is not the competition, the corporations at the big far away cities have much more influence on success/failure.

.

Sounds great. But I’m with Ray. It won’t work. History shows it. Sociology and psychology studies show it. Game shows show it. Even if 80-90% go along and cooperate, it only takes a few to derail the dream. Let’s all hoard our grains, not sell, that’ll make the price go up! Ok guys, no one sells until corn is $5! Meanwhile farmer X is sitting on a mountain of debt with one butt cheek and a bumper corn crop with the other. Pssst! Farmer X….we’ll take all your corn for $4.85, regardless of anything! He caves, makes his payment, has a better position to jump when Farmer Y has trouble.

People suck. I’ll never forget when my own best friend stabbed me in this game back in college after we agreed to stay in sync to mess with the result of the game.



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