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Price Of Corn, and Soybeans

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Teddy (punchie) View Drop Down
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    Posted: 30 Sep 2011 at 3:51pm
What's up with this downturn, I'm little surprised at this.  We have not even got into the harvest an the prices are looking llike they are headed down. Just was eye catching.
 
Teddy
 
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steelwheelAcjim View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote steelwheelAcjim Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Sep 2011 at 4:01pm

The claim is that there is enough world supply of all coarse grains.

I think they are trying to force farmers into storing on farm.

Or, the bubble has burst. History repeats itself, we may see conditions like the early 80's again only with low interest levels, and lenders not lending.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ACFarmer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Sep 2011 at 6:10pm
report came out again and they are saying that theres more corn out there than they thought....
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Roddo Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Sep 2011 at 6:21pm
Originally posted by Teddy (punchie) Teddy (punchie) wrote:

What's up with this downturn, I'm little surprised at this.  We have not even got into the harvest an the prices are looking llike they are headed down. Just was eye catching.
 
Teddy
 


Haven't got into harvest yet? I'm in Ontario and people are harvesting around here so they MUST be harvesting south of us in the USA. 
I also heard that China is supposed to be buying up a crap ton of corn, something like 100000 tonnes.  That should drive prices up again, it just hasn't happened yet.
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Dave in il View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dave in il Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Sep 2011 at 6:51pm
More left over stocks, better than expected early yields and our overseas customers are in worse shape economically than we are.
Hope no one here has locked in $400+ cash rent or bought 9 or 10 thousand dollar per acre land recently.  
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Ted J View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Ted J Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Sep 2011 at 6:58pm
Yeah and I heard a deal went through with (I believe) Korea buying x-amount of tons over the next two years.  That should help.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote R.W Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Sep 2011 at 7:22pm
Originally posted by ACFarmer ACFarmer wrote:

report came out again and they are saying that theres more corn out there than they thought....
This is what I heard.
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arrowcreekfarms View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote arrowcreekfarms Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Sep 2011 at 7:42pm
US government doesn't have the money to buy up reserves and dictate price. Even with high foreign demand I think we have seen the peak for corn and soybeans for atleast this year. But then again I have been proven wrong before
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Kcgrain View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kcgrain Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Oct 2011 at 9:14am
The run up or down of the crop prices has nothing to do with supply and demand, talk to any grain broker there is corn everywhere buyers dont even want it but yet the price was sky high. The volitle prices have been due to the markets speculating, the stock market is tanked every other investment is crap so they put there money into commodities, and the only way money people make money in the market is if its volitile, hence the huge swings, and this includes oil its all speculation, and people making money with out producing anything.The trick is to not be the last man out, which never works.
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darrel in ND View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote darrel in ND Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Oct 2011 at 2:17pm
I think Kcgrain hit er on the nose
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Brad(WI) View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Brad(WI) Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Oct 2011 at 6:34pm
I don't know about the buyers not wanting it.  Around me the basis is usually around $-0.40, that's what it is now.  This summer it was $0.15 at times.  Buyers needed it and farmers didn't want to part with it or didn't have it.  If there were no buyers, the basis should have went lower (more cost to elevators to protect the higher price corn).  That's just around me, most went to ethanol plants, I believe.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jack(Ky) Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Oct 2011 at 5:26am
They found out I put out a few acres of corn this year and the bottom fell out as does everything I get in to.LOL I really ought to get in the oil business, that would bring down fuel prices for sure. In the late seventies I bought 2 sows to raise pigs from and bring in some extra income it brought down the entire hog market for years afterward. People around here still blame me for this.LOL

Edited by Jack(Ky) - 02 Oct 2011 at 5:31am
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Teddy (punchie) View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Teddy (punchie) Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Oct 2011 at 7:16am
Originally posted by Kcgrain Kcgrain wrote:

The run up or down of the crop prices has nothing to do with supply and demand, talk to any grain broker there is corn everywhere buyers dont even want it but yet the price was sky high. The volitle prices have been due to the markets speculating, the stock market is tanked every other investment is crap so they put there money into commodities, and the only way money people make money in the market is if its volitile, hence the huge swings, and this includes oil its all speculation, and people making money with out producing anything.The trick is to not be the last man out, which never works.


That's what I thought a play on Puts and Calls as to make more money on the game of ups and downs.
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Teddy (punchie) View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Teddy (punchie) Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Oct 2011 at 7:21am
Originally posted by Dave in il Dave in il wrote:

More left over stocks, better than expected early yields and our overseas customers are in worse shape economically than we are.
Hope no one here has locked in $400+ cash rent or bought 9 or 10 thousand dollar per acre land recently.  


I have heard about this before, back in the 70-80's talked allot of farmers into the hole. Get bigger buy that equipment and ground, look at what you can make.  Live and learn.

USDA as bad as the Weather Person , I guess they were Off anywhere from 20-40%





Edited by Teddy (punchie) - 02 Oct 2011 at 7:22am
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Dave in il View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dave in il Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Oct 2011 at 9:37am
Originally posted by Jack(Ky) Jack(Ky) wrote:

They found out I put out a few acres of corn this year and the bottom fell out as does everything I get in to.LOL I really ought to get in the oil business, that would bring down fuel prices for sure. In the late seventies I bought 2 sows to raise pigs from and bring in some extra income it brought down the entire hog market for years afterward. People around here still blame me for this.LOL
 
 
So youir the guy! Actually, I always thought it was me. LOL
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kcgrain Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Oct 2011 at 11:00am
The puts and calls and all the options that are in place to so called protect the farmer is all a bunch of BS, 85% of the time they expire useless, and your out your money, and the money people know this. The whole system  thats suppose to be set up on supply and demand is bogus, why do we report acres planted to the USDA, or our planting intentions? Who does that protect, it surely isnt us. Lets see lets call GM and ask them how many cars they have in inventory, or how many they plan on building, and than base the selling price on the fact that GM has cars stacked up like cord wood, it would be absurd, and GM would never devulge those numbers. This system is set up so the CBT and speculators can reap all the money while us producers suck hind tit. This run up on prices has done more to hurt faming than anything I have encountered since I began farming in 1990. We make less money, net, but have huge risk, meanwile ADM, Monsanto, Dupont, Dow etc etc etc reap the benifits of this run up by grossly over charging for seed, chemicals etc, than the landlords are all convinced that were flush with money so they want more, whats going to happen when the price of corn goes back down to under 3 bucks, who is gong to be the last man standing than?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote GBACBFan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Oct 2011 at 11:19am
Teddy, we have the same problem in Wisconsin with the DNR's data on the whitetail deer population. According to our DNR herd count data, Santa Clause has 17 reindeer.
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Teddy (punchie) View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Teddy (punchie) Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Oct 2011 at 11:19am
Originally posted by Kcgrain Kcgrain wrote:

The puts and calls and all the options that are in place to so called protect the farmer is all a bunch of BS, 85% of the time they expire useless, and your out your money, and the money people know this. The whole system  thats suppose to be set up on supply and demand is bogus, why do we report acres planted to the USDA, or our planting intentions? Who does that protect, it surely isnt us. Lets see lets call GM and ask them how many cars they have in inventory, or how many they plan on building, and than base the selling price on the fact that GM has cars stacked up like cord wood, it would be absurd, and GM would never devulge those numbers. This system is set up so the CBT and speculators can reap all the money while us producers suck hind tit. This run up on prices has done more to hurt faming than anything I have encountered since I began farming in 1990. We make less money, net, but have huge risk, meanwile ADM, Monsanto, Dupont, Dow etc etc etc reap the benifits of this run up by grossly over charging for seed, chemicals etc, than the landlords are all convinced that were flush with money so they want more, whats going to happen when the price of corn goes back down to under 3 bucks, who is gong to be the last man standing than?


They know  !! That how the rich get richer and the poor get poorer, sound like we are on the same page, close to the same age.  That why I learn to grow slowly, but it takes time and sure is hard, it took me 10 years to make any money farming, in Hay and Cattle, not getting rich but covering cost and have something to lean on if I loss me other Job. Work on side getting ready to row crop again for the last five years. Going to do okay this year, but if corn get down around 4.00 we are going to be all up the creek.
I maybe ok but the rest and what they pay for rent is going to be bad very bad.








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Teddy (punchie) View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Teddy (punchie) Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Oct 2011 at 11:24am
Originally posted by GBACBFan GBACBFan wrote:

Teddy, we have the same problem in Wisconsin with the DNR's data on the whitetail deer population. According to our DNR herd count data, Santa Clause has 17 reindeer.


LOL  :  Pa Game Commission , count like that to but in some ares Santa has just Rudolph , others he has 17.  one place no deer , others are loaded. Maybe we are just too slow to understand ?????  
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