The world today

My 2 cents, I don't think there will be a wheat shortage. And even if there is wheat will remain near it's current pathetic price. Simply because the world governments are worried about food inflation and will do whatever is necessary to keep basic sustenance foods at low prices to keep the masses from revolting. Is the price you quoted in kiwi bucks per 2000 lbs? The price here in western Canada is about $297 canadian per metric tonne delivered to the elevator for no.1 hard red spring wheat. Latest price for farm diesel I have heard is $1.71 per liter.

What I observe locally is most farms that are still in business have expanded and survived on smaller margins spread over more acres which has worked for many years. It has also raised prices for ground both purchase and rent to the point it really isn't possible to get a start unless you have help. With multiple inputs making huge jumps this year I don't see the large operations making any money, but they have expanded to the point that the processors have to have them. 2006 was the last year I worked full time in agriculture and at that time there were 52 potato growers(number from the Washington - Oregon Potato Conference) in the Columbia Basin - Quincy WA south into Oregon. Since then I can think of at least 5 that I have worked with or for that no longer grow potatoes, and that is just in the I90 corridor. I think the next shift we will see is the ownership groups of the processors expanding into the farming side and pushing out even the large operations. I think this will be the year that starts that change.
Reading back through that it seems like doom and gloom, so why keep doing it? My brothers operation that I help with is small, and we had the opportunity to expand this year. We looked at the market and decided against it before the price of everything jumped. Hopefully we made a good decision and are still going next year.

Ted

Have noted Bank 'Operating Loans' being issued here, several farms failed over last few years and went to receivership sales, did not recover what was lost.  Land Sales around Audrain County MO and even around here are slewing DOWN, Pricing is decreasing as those with flowable cash or decent bank structured loans have bought all they can.  Old Purchased ground someone bought as investment and since passed away left to the kids are being broken back up in sales where are no longer making great buys, sit on listings far too long ending up on Auctions garnering less than 2/3 previous Lowest value listings.