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FREEDGUY 
Orange Level Access
Joined: 15 Apr 2017
Location: South West Mich
Points: 5396
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 Topic: How Do They Sleep At Night ??
Posted: 09 Aug 2021 at 6:54pm |
All 3 local news channel "forecasters" said rain between 9 and 11 this morning, then "major" storms this evening around mid night. Well, there was NO rain in the area this morning and a look at an "online" weather site has NO threat of "major" weather here this evening  . How (unless an attorney) can these people be so BLATANTLY wrong with a forecast and still get paid a 6 figure salary  ??
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NEVER green
Orange Level Access
Joined: 28 Feb 2013
Location: MN.
Points: 8499
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Posted: 09 Aug 2021 at 6:58pm |
Maybe you should take up forecasting. 
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2-8050 1-7080 6080 D-19 modelE & A 7040 R50
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steve(ill)
Orange Level Access
Joined: 11 Sep 2009
Location: illinois
Points: 87595
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Posted: 09 Aug 2021 at 7:04pm |
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I think they are Democrats ?
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Like them all, but love the "B"s.
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jaybmiller
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Joined: 12 Sep 2009
Location: Greensville,Ont
Points: 24649
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Posted: 09 Aug 2021 at 7:11pm |
yeah it's a great gig.... people expect you to be wrong, don't say squat, then when you are right....hooray...must walk on water ! get paid big bucket of coins either way.... gotta be more money in forecastin than farmin....
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3 D-14s,A-C forklift, B-112
Kubota BX23S lil' TOOT( The Other Orange Tractor)
Never burn your bridges, unless you can walk on water
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FREEDGUY
Orange Level Access
Joined: 15 Apr 2017
Location: South West Mich
Points: 5396
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Posted: 09 Aug 2021 at 7:29pm |
[QUOTE=NEVER green]
Maybe you should take up forecasting. [/QUOTE Weren't you one of the "forecasters" of a recent nation wide event around the month of November?? How did that "weather" event pan out for your forecast  !!! These people have been getting farther and farther away from an accurate forecast with their more and more "computerized" models |
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JTOOL
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Joined: 28 Feb 2021
Location: 64720
Points: 346
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Posted: 09 Aug 2021 at 7:44pm |
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@FREEDGUY; I remember one of the physics professors I had in college remarking that with all of the different variables and how chaotic weather systems are, he was surprised how often they got it right.
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FREEDGUY
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Joined: 15 Apr 2017
Location: South West Mich
Points: 5396
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Posted: 09 Aug 2021 at 7:51pm |
 JTOOL wrote:
@FREEDGUY; I remember one of the physics professors I had in college remarking that with all of the different variables and how chaotic weather systems are, he was surprised how often they got it right.
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Thanks for the reply, but they've said "partly cloudy" during a morning newscast and it was POURING rain (no rain in their forecast  ), all they have to do is look out of a window  !!
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NEVER green
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Joined: 28 Feb 2013
Location: MN.
Points: 8499
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Posted: 09 Aug 2021 at 7:55pm |
FREEDGUY wrote:
[QUOTE=NEVER green]
Maybe you should take up forecasting. Weren't you one of the "forecasters" of a recent nation wide event around the month of November?? How did that "weather" event pan out for your forecast !!! These people have been getting farther and farther away from an accurate forecast with their more and more "computerized" models |
No that wasnt me ,not surprised you got that wrong, again I think you would fit right in the weathermen / women.
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2-8050 1-7080 6080 D-19 modelE & A 7040 R50
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thendrix
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Joined: 04 Feb 2013
Location: Fairmount GA
Points: 5084
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Posted: 09 Aug 2021 at 8:16pm |
To their credit, it probably was, at least, partly cloudy while it was pouring
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"Farming is a business that makes a Las Vegas craps table look like a regular paycheck" Ronald Reagan
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john(MI)
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Joined: 12 Sep 2009
Location: SE MI
Points: 9262
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Posted: 09 Aug 2021 at 11:39pm |
They are not forecasting for your specific point at the time. The forecast for my area is 17 counties in SE MI. there ain't no way it's going to be the same over that large of an area. If you want an accurate specific point forecast, get a weather rock!
Where you are the forecast comes from Grand Rapids. They forecast to the state line. In Indiana, Ft. Wayne they forecast north to the State line. Maybe you should look into finding a way to check both forecasts and then extrapolate your own forecast.
I know, you can go on your smart phone and get the Weather Channel App. Then look at the forecast where you are, and then change the location to where you are going and figure it out. It works pretty good.
Edited by john(MI) - 09 Aug 2021 at 11:49pm
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D14, D17, 5020, 612H, CASE 446
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DMiller
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Joined: 14 Sep 2009
Location: Hermann, Mo
Points: 33863
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Posted: 10 Aug 2021 at 4:30am |
Is much like the 45% chance of rain or cloudy, is NOT the percentage chance the Entire area will see but the percentage of that area that will see that predicted weather. We had a 30% chance of rain Sunday, got .2 rain, across the river was .7 and a little west was 1 full inch, three of the counties in our weather zone got NADA.
Have to examine IN CONTEXT not in interpretation.
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Lars(wi)
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Joined: 14 Sep 2009
Location: Permian Basin
Points: 8028
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Posted: 10 Aug 2021 at 5:22am |
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Some years ago, the definition’s were changed. The % chance of whatever is predicted, is the percentage of the surface area the forecast covers will experience the weather event, not the % chance if it will happen or not. Make sense now?
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I tried to follow the science, but it was not there. I then followed the money, and that’s where I found the science.
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LouSWPA
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Joined: 11 Sep 2009
Location: Clinton, Pa
Points: 25072
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Posted: 10 Aug 2021 at 6:26am |
awhile back, it was people on bicycles, a few days ago it was short beds on P/U's, today weather forecasters, constantly Trump..... I believe it was Mac Davis that pointed out, it's hard to be humble when you're perfect in every way
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I am still confident of this;
I will see the goodness of the Lord in the land of the living.
Wait for the Lord;
be strong and take heart and wait for the Lord. Ps 27
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klinemar
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Joined: 14 Sep 2009
Location: Michigan
Points: 8053
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Posted: 10 Aug 2021 at 6:44am |
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Climate is what we expect. Weather is what we get. Mark Twain
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Lars(wi)
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Joined: 14 Sep 2009
Location: Permian Basin
Points: 8028
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Posted: 10 Aug 2021 at 6:45am |
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Well, you know, some are not happy unless they got something to b*tch about.
I’m waiting for the gripe about cole slaw, long and shredded, or chopped short.
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I tried to follow the science, but it was not there. I then followed the money, and that’s where I found the science.
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Tbone95
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Joined: 31 Aug 2012
Location: Michigan
Points: 12155
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Posted: 10 Aug 2021 at 7:01am |
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Online forecasting is no better.
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jaybmiller
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Joined: 12 Sep 2009
Location: Greensville,Ont
Points: 24649
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Posted: 10 Aug 2021 at 8:02am |
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I look at the live RADAR for Ontario and then NWS for the 'big picture', to give me a HINT as to what MIGHT happen....maybe, well, could, sortof.....
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3 D-14s,A-C forklift, B-112
Kubota BX23S lil' TOOT( The Other Orange Tractor)
Never burn your bridges, unless you can walk on water
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mdm1
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Joined: 12 Sep 2009
Location: Onalaska, WI
Points: 2677
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Posted: 10 Aug 2021 at 10:21am |
With their eyes closed!!!!!!!! AMEN. 
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Everything is impossible until someone does it! WD45-trip loader 1947 c w/woods belly mower, 1939 B, #3 sickle mower 1944 B, 2 1948 G's. Misc other equipment that my wife calls JUNK!
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john(MI)
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Joined: 12 Sep 2009
Location: SE MI
Points: 9262
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Posted: 10 Aug 2021 at 2:37pm |
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Another issue with the weather in this area I just happened to think about. The Great Lakes can change the expected weather at a moments notice. I was loving it last winter when Lake MI was pushing everything south along the southern border of MI. OH was getting dumped on big time!
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D14, D17, 5020, 612H, CASE 446
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Dusty MI
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Joined: 13 Sep 2009
Location: Charlotte, Mi
Points: 5059
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Posted: 10 Aug 2021 at 2:50pm |
john(MI) wrote:
Another issue with the weather in this area I just happened to think about. The Great Lakes can change the expected weather at a moments notice. I was loving it last winter when Lake MI was pushing everything south along the southern border of MI. OH was getting dumped on big time!
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Years ago before satellite it was said that because of Lake Michigan, weather forecasting in Michigan was very unpredictable.
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917 H, '48 G, '65 D-10 series III "Allis Express"
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Dorix
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Joined: 21 Apr 2020
Location: fox valley
Points: 1045
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Posted: 10 Aug 2021 at 2:52pm |
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They're just following the science.
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DiyDave
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Joined: 11 Sep 2009
Location: Gambrills, MD
Points: 54042
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Posted: 10 Aug 2021 at 6:25pm |
Some people would b*tch if you hung 'em with a new rope!
For Lou!
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Source: Babylon Bee. Sponsored by BRAWNDO, its got what you need!
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john(MI)
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Joined: 12 Sep 2009
Location: SE MI
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Posted: 10 Aug 2021 at 9:13pm |
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I know for a fact that they walk out of the building with their chest puffed out after working a severe weather event. They know they saved a lot of lives by issuing warnings for specific locations with adequate time for people to seek shelter. Every year the number of severe weather fatalities drops from previous years. But I guess the weather of the moment is more important than this minor issue!
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D14, D17, 5020, 612H, CASE 446
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shameless dude
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Joined: 10 Apr 2017
Location: east NE
Points: 13607
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Posted: 10 Aug 2021 at 9:47pm |
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when a TV station has to many employees, they hafta find something for them to do so they put them at the weather desk!
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HD6GTOM
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Joined: 30 Nov 2009
Location: MADISON CO IA
Points: 6627
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Posted: 10 Aug 2021 at 10:59pm |
Shameless, when I first saw the headline, I thought he was talking about ferd pickup salesmen.
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Wayne180d
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Joined: 08 Dec 2015
Location: Gilman, Il
Points: 5942
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Posted: 14 Aug 2021 at 10:36pm |
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I just tell the weather by the cows if they are under the shade tree it's hot, if they are all standing in the barn huddled together it is cold if their tail is not straight down it's windy and if they are wet it is raining. LOL
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