Unofficial Allis Homepage
Forum Home Forum Home > Other Topics > Politics
  New Posts New Posts
  FAQ FAQ  Forum Search   Events   Register Register  Login Login

Beating the Presidential odds

 Post Reply Post Reply
Author
Message
TramwayGuy View Drop Down
Orange Level
Orange Level


Joined: 19 Jan 2010
Location: Northern NY
Points: 5172
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote TramwayGuy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Beating the Presidential odds
    Posted: 09 Jan 2019 at 9:59pm
“Gambling site Bookmaker took quite a punch last night after losing $276,424 to people who correctly bet that Trump would make at least 3.5 "false statements" (aka lies, or alternative facts) during his Oval Office address last night – in fact, 92% of the people who placed a bet got it right.

"Bookmaker.eu asked people to wager on the president's truthfulness, offering odds of -145 for more than 3.5 lies and +115 for less than 3.5 lies. That means if a person bet $145 dollars that Trump would lie at least four times, they would win $100," according to BuzzFeed. Bookmaker used The Washington Post's Fact Checker to determine which Trump statements were falsehoods.

The big question is, why would a gambling site offer such a stupid bet in the first place? Apparently, they were banking on the fact that Trump wouldn't be able to squeeze in enough lies in the short 8-minute time allotment he had. Huge miscalculation – we're talking about Trump, after all.

Via BuzzFeed:

The site used the Washington Post's Fact Checker as the arbiter of Trump's truth and lies. The Post's live blog has corrected six statements that Trump made during the televised address seeking a border wall. (Here's the reality of what's going on at the border.)

Lester said Bookmaker expected Trump to lie, but that it had also factored in the time constraints the president would be under in delivering Tuesday's speech.

"We figured the president's strategy going in would be a bit of fear mongering to create pressure on the Democrats to approve the funding of the wall (or barrier), however the president was also constrained by an approximate 8-minute time limit," Lester said. "With all the cable networks agreeing to air the speech, it came down to, how many times is the president willing to exaggerate the truth to accomplish his agenda, when he knows the world will be scrutinizing his every word?"

The biggest winners won $25,000, 20,000, and 15,000. Like taking candy from a baby.”

Edited by TramwayGuy - 09 Jan 2019 at 10:00pm
Back to Top
Sponsored Links


Back to Top
DiyDave View Drop Down
Orange Level
Orange Level
Avatar

Joined: 11 Sep 2009
Location: Gambrills, MD
Points: 28514
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote DiyDave Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Jan 2019 at 5:03am
Give us a source of what these 3.5 lies are, tranny, or your post is just hot air...Wink
Back to Top
jaybmiller View Drop Down
Orange Level
Orange Level


Joined: 12 Sep 2009
Location: Greensville,Ont
Points: 10396
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jaybmiller Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Jan 2019 at 6:06am
'One man's lie is another man's truth'.
You need a frame of reference or impartial judge to decide. Even those are 'subject to change'.....
3 D-14s,A-C forklift, B-112
Kubota BX23S lil' TOOT( The Other Orange Tractor)

Never burn your bridges, unless you can walk on water
Back to Top
Lonn View Drop Down
Orange Level
Orange Level
Avatar

Joined: 16 Sep 2009
Location: Назарово,Russia
Points: 24170
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Lonn Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Jan 2019 at 6:50am
Tranny, how do you put up wif dat chitty taste in yo mouf all da time? You step in sheeit then you fights ta git dat foot in yo mouf!
Mohammed was a murdering child rapist

Back to Top
steve(ill) View Drop Down
Orange Level
Orange Level
Avatar

Joined: 11 Sep 2009
Location: illinois
Points: 41046
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote steve(ill) Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Jan 2019 at 7:25am
POOR IGNORANT PISSERS.......... their TRUTH is
 
walls don't work
walls cost too much money
illegals are a great asset to the US
illegals don't commit crimes
TARDS have never voted for a wall
the easter bunny brings good eggs
Ruth will be on the court 6 more years
 
Trump Is Not A Lib or Conserv, He's a "Pragmatist." (someone who is practical and focused on reaching a goal. Has a straightforward, matter-of-fact approach and doesn't let emotion distract him or her
Back to Top
steve(ill) View Drop Down
Orange Level
Orange Level
Avatar

Joined: 11 Sep 2009
Location: illinois
Points: 41046
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote steve(ill) Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Jan 2019 at 7:28am
You using the Washington Post as a reference ?  That worthless, trash rag, butt wipeing, lieing, piece of sh*t, libertard, crap hole they call news ?
Trump Is Not A Lib or Conserv, He's a "Pragmatist." (someone who is practical and focused on reaching a goal. Has a straightforward, matter-of-fact approach and doesn't let emotion distract him or her
Back to Top
Lonn View Drop Down
Orange Level
Orange Level
Avatar

Joined: 16 Sep 2009
Location: Назарово,Russia
Points: 24170
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Lonn Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Jan 2019 at 7:56am
Originally posted by steve(ill) steve(ill) wrote:

You using the Washington Post as a reference ?  That worthless, trash rag, butt wipeing, lieing, piece of sh*t, libertard, crap hole they call news ?
I could be wrong but do I detect a tad bit of displeasure in WAPO? Shocked
Mohammed was a murdering child rapist

Back to Top
steve(ill) View Drop Down
Orange Level
Orange Level
Avatar

Joined: 11 Sep 2009
Location: illinois
Points: 41046
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote steve(ill) Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Jan 2019 at 7:56am
IF YOU LIKE YOUR DOCTOR, YOU CAN KEEP YOUR DOCTOR.
 
I DID NOT HAVE SEX WITH THAT WOMAN.
 
THEY ARE DEAD..... WHAT DIFFERENCE DOES IT MAKE NOW
 
WHAT 33,000 HIDDEN E-MAILS
 
there are your 4 LIES for today !!
Trump Is Not A Lib or Conserv, He's a "Pragmatist." (someone who is practical and focused on reaching a goal. Has a straightforward, matter-of-fact approach and doesn't let emotion distract him or her
Back to Top
TramwayGuy View Drop Down
Orange Level
Orange Level


Joined: 19 Jan 2010
Location: Northern NY
Points: 5172
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote TramwayGuy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Jan 2019 at 8:02am
“Give us a source of what these 3.5 lies are,”

Read the article. It tells you.
Back to Top
Lonn View Drop Down
Orange Level
Orange Level
Avatar

Joined: 16 Sep 2009
Location: Назарово,Russia
Points: 24170
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Lonn Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Jan 2019 at 8:07am
I read the article YOU posted. Please point out what items the article lists as false. Pretend I can't read. Be specific. Real actual quotes are best.
Mohammed was a murdering child rapist

Back to Top
Lonn View Drop Down
Orange Level
Orange Level
Avatar

Joined: 16 Sep 2009
Location: Назарово,Russia
Points: 24170
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Lonn Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Jan 2019 at 10:52am
Originally posted by Lonn Lonn wrote:

I read the article YOU posted. Please point out what items the article lists as false. Pretend I can't read. Be specific. Real actual quotes are best.
Hey Trammy!
Mohammed was a murdering child rapist

Back to Top
DiyDave View Drop Down
Orange Level
Orange Level
Avatar

Joined: 11 Sep 2009
Location: Gambrills, MD
Points: 28514
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote DiyDave Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Jan 2019 at 5:18pm
Originally posted by TramwayGuy TramwayGuy wrote:

“Give us a source of what these 3.5 lies are,”

Read the article. It tells you.

Oh, I see it's buzzfeed... The rag that told the world that the steele dossier was gospel truth...  And they keep foolin simple minded trannies...Wink

Another thought.  What are the 3.5 lies, I didn't see them explained, tranny!WinkWink


Edited by DiyDave - 10 Jan 2019 at 5:35pm
Back to Top
TramwayGuy View Drop Down
Orange Level
Orange Level


Joined: 19 Jan 2010
Location: Northern NY
Points: 5172
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote TramwayGuy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Jan 2019 at 7:27pm
“he's said before. (Meg Kelly/The Washington Post)

By Salvador Rizzo
January 9
The first misleading statement in President Trump’s Oval Office address Tuesday night came in the first sentence.

Trump, addressing a national television audience from behind his desk, warned of a “security crisis at the southern border” — even though the number of people caught trying to cross illegally is near 20-year lows.

Another false claim came moments later, when Trump said border agents “encounter thousands of illegal immigrants trying to enter our country” every day, though his administration puts the daily average for 2018 in the hundreds. A few sentences later, he said 90 percent of the heroin in the United States comes across the border with Mexico, ignoring the fact that most of the drugs come through legal entry points and wouldn’t be stopped by the border wall that he is demanding as the centerpiece of his showdown with Democrats.

Over the course of his nine-minute speech, Trump painted a misleading and bleak picture of the situation at the U.S.-Mexico border. He pumped up some numbers, exaggerated the public safety risks of immigration and repeated false claims regarding how to fund a border wall.

The appearance, coming as a partial federal government shutdown resulting from the wall fight enters its third week, underscored the extent to which Trump has relied on false and misleading claims to justify what has long been his signature political issue.

One false claim noticeably absent from the speech was the assertion made by the president and many of his allies in recent days that terrorists are infiltrating the country by way of the southern border. Fact-checkers and TV anchors, including those on Fox News, spent days challenging the truthfulness of the claim.


Below are the truths behind Trump’s claims from the Oval Office address:

“Tonight I am speaking to you because there is a growing humanitarian and security crisis at our southern border.”

By any available measure, there is no new security crisis at the border.

Apprehensions of people trying to cross the southern border peaked most recently at 1.6 million in 2000 and have been in decline since, falling to just under 400,000 in fiscal 2018. The decline is partly because of technology upgrades; tougher penalties in the wake of the 9/11 terrorist attacks; a decline in migration rates from Mexico; and a sharp increase in the number of Border Patrol officers. The fiscal 2018 number was up from just over 300,000 apprehensions at the U.S.-Mexico border for fiscal 2017, the lowest level in more than 45 years.

There are far more cases of travelers overstaying their visas than southern border apprehensions. In fiscal 2017, the Department of Homeland Security reported 606,926 suspected in-country overstays, or twice the number of southern border apprehensions. In fiscal 2016, U.S. officials reported 408,870 southern border apprehensions and 544,676 suspected in-country overstays.

While overall numbers of migrants crossing illegally are down, since 2014 more families from El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras have begun to trek to the United States in search of safer conditions or economic opportunities, creating a humanitarian crisis.

“Record numbers of migrant families are streaming into the United States, overwhelming border agents and leaving holding cells dangerously overcrowded with children, many of whom are falling sick,” The Washington Post reported Jan. 5. “Two Guatemalan children taken into U.S. custody died in December.”


“Every day Customs and Border Patrol agents encounter thousands of illegal immigrants trying to enter our country.”

Southern border apprehensions in fiscal 2018 averaged 30,000 a month (or 1,000 a day). They ticked up in the first two months of fiscal 2019, but it’s a stretch to say “thousands” a day. Better to say “hundreds.”

“America proudly welcomes millions of lawful immigrants who enrich our society and contribute to our nation, but all Americans are hurt by uncontrolled illegal migration. It strains public resources and drives down jobs and wages. Among those hardest hit are African Americans and Hispanic Americans.”

Some context here: In general, economists say illegal immigration tends to affect less-educated and low-skilled American workers the most, which disproportionately encompasses black men and recently arrived, low-educated legal immigrants, including Latinos.


The U.S. Commission on Civil Rights in 2010 found that illegal immigration has tended to depress wages and employment for black men. However, there are other factors at play, and “halting illegal immigration is not a panacea even for the problem of depressed wage rates for low-skilled jobs,” the commission found.

The consensus among economic research studies is that the impact of immigration is primarily a net positive for the U.S. economy and to workers overall, especially over the long term. According to a comprehensive 2016 report by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine on the economic impacts of the U.S. immigration system, studies on the impact of immigration showed “the seemingly paradoxical result that although larger immigration flows may generate higher rates of unemployment in some sectors, overall, the rate of unemployment for native workers declines.”

“Our southern border is a pipeline for vast quantities of illegal drugs, including meth, heroin, cocaine and fentanyl. Every week, 300 of our citizens are killed by heroin alone, 90 percent of which floods across from our southern border.”

In 2017, more than 15,000 people died of drug overdoses involving heroin in the United States, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. That works out to about 300 a week.


But while 90 percent of the heroin sold in the United States comes from Mexico, virtually all of it comes through legal points of entry. “A small percentage of all heroin seized by [Customs and Border Protection] along the land border was between Ports of Entry (POEs),” the Drug Enforcement Administration said in a 2018 report. So Trump’s wall would do little to halt drug trafficking. Trump’s repeated claim that the wall would stop drug trafficking is a Bottomless Pinocchio claim.

“In the last two years, ICE officers made 266,000 arrests of aliens with criminal records, including those charged or convicted of 100,000 assaults, 30,000 sex crimes, and 4,000 violent killings. Over the years, thousands of Americans have been brutally killed by those who illegally entered our country, and thousands more lives will be lost if we don’t act right now.”

Trump warns about dangerous criminals, but the numbers he’s citing involve a mix of serious and nonviolent offenses such as immigration violations. U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement reports yearly arrest totals without breaking down the type of offense, which could be anything from homicide to a DUI to illegal entry.


Notice how Trump switches quickly from the 266,000 arrests over two years to charges and convictions: “100,000 assaults, 30,000 sex crimes, and 4,000 violent killings.” In many cases, the people arrested face multiple counts, so that switch gives a confusing picture.

In fiscal 2018, ICE conducted 158,581 administrative arrests for civil immigration violations. The agency’s year-end report says two-thirds (105,140) of those involved people with criminal convictions and one-fifth (32,977) involved people with pending criminal charges. Of the 143,470 administrative arrests in 2017, 74 percent involved people with criminal records and 15.5 percent involved people who had pending charges. But these totals cover all types of offenses — including illegal entry or reentry.

In the fiscal 2018 breakdown, 16 percent of all the charges and convictions were immigration and related offenses.


“Last month, 20,000 migrant children were illegally brought into the United States, a dramatic increase. These children are used as human pawns by vicious coyotes and ruthless gangs.”

No government statistic tracks children smuggled in by bad actors, “coyotes” or drug gangs. What Trump is referring to is CBP’s number for family unit apprehensions and unaccompanied minors. The family unit by definition must include at least one parent or legal guardian and one minor. (There’s a separate figure for unaccompanied alien children.)

DHS spokeswoman Katie Waldman said the December total for apprehensions of unaccompanied children and those with family members was 19,313. But it’s wrong to describe it as a statistic that represents children being smuggled into the country.

Trump describes this as children being smuggled in by coyotes or gangs, but border officials screen for false claims of parentage. To imply as Trump does that a child’s mother, father or legal guardian is or hired a smuggler, coyote or gang member in all of these cases is wrong.

(Correction: A previous version of this story said Trump understated the number of migrant children apprehended last month at the southern border, based on November data. The December data, which DHS released after Trump’s speech, show the number is around 20,000, as Trump said. The story incorrectly described the way U.S. Customs and Border Protection counts children and family members who are caught attempting to cross the border, or “family unit apprehensions.” The term refers to a monthly tally published by the agency of the total number of children, parents or legal guardians who are caught together at the border, not the number of families.)

“Furthermore, we have asked Congress to close border security loopholes so that illegal immigrant children can be safely and humanely returned back home.”

The Trump administration considers the Flores settlement agreement a loophole. That policy requires the government to release unaccompanied immigrant children who are caught crossing the border within 20 days to family members, foster homes or “least restrictive” settings.

The president also wants to tighten U.S. asylum laws generally and the Trafficking Victims Protection Reauthorization Act, with the goal of restricting some immigrants' opportunities to file asylum petitions. Trump describes these asylum provisions as “border security loopholes,” but supporters call them core provisions of U.S. laws that cover refugees.

“Finally, as part of an overall approach to border security, law enforcement professionals have requested $5.7 billion for a physical barrier. At the request of Democrats, it will be a steel barrier rather than a concrete wall.”

Trump suggests that Democrats requested a steel barrier rather than a concrete wall, but the proposed switch to steel was an idea the Trump administration brought up. No Democrats are on record demanding a steel barrier along the U.S.-Mexico border.

“This is just common sense. The border wall would very quickly pay for itself. The cost of illegal drugs exceeds $500 billion a year, vastly more than the $5.7 billion we have requested from Congress.”

Trump tweeted a similar claim in March, citing a study from the Center for Immigration Studies, which supports more restrictive immigration policies. Essentially, the claim that the wall pays for itself turns on three numbers: a) estimated savings from each undocumented immigrant blocked by the wall, b) the total number of undocumented immigrants stopped over 10 years and, and c) the cost of the wall.

It’s (a) $75,000 multiplied by (b) 160,000 to 200,000 equals (c) $12 billion to $15 billion. So, if the wall actually costs $25 billion, the number of undocumented immigrants halted by the wall would need to be doubled, or one has to assume it would take 20 years to earn the money back. But other experts offer different estimates for each of those numbers.

Plus, as we’ve previously reported, the wall would do little to stop drugs from entering the United States, since they primarily come in through legal points of entry, making the cost of illegal drugs irrelevant to this issue.

“The wall will also be paid for indirectly by the great new trade deal we have made with Mexico.”

This is a Four Pinocchio claim. During the campaign, Trump more than 200 times promised Mexico would pay for the wall, which the administration says would cost at least $18 billion. Now he says a minor reworking of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) will earn enough money for pay for the wall.

This betrays a misunderstanding of economics. Countries do not “lose” money on trade deficits, so there is no money to earn; the size of a trade deficit or surplus can be determined by other factors besides trade. Congress must still appropriate the money, and the trade agreement has not been ratified.

“Senator Chuck Schumer, who you will be hearing from later tonight, has repeatedly supported a physical barrier in the past, along with many other Democrats. They changed their mind only after I was elected president.”

Schumer, Hillary Clinton and many other Democrats voted for the Secure Fence Act of 2006, which authorized building a fence along nearly 700 miles of the border between the United States and Mexico. But the fence they voted for is not as substantial as the wall Trump is proposing. Trump himself has called the 2006 fence a “nothing wall.”

Michelle Ye Hee Lee and Meg Kelly contributed to this repor
Back to Top
steve(ill) View Drop Down
Orange Level
Orange Level
Avatar

Joined: 11 Sep 2009
Location: illinois
Points: 41046
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote steve(ill) Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Jan 2019 at 7:34pm
There are articles all over the internet today about the WASINGTON POST and their LIES against TRUMP... EVERYTHING he said was FACTS......... the TARD VERSION full of HATE and RAGE has to LIE and CHEAT and give their FAKE NEWS VERSIONS..
 
And the summary is TRUMP gave an EXCELLENT speech ........ Pee and Shmucker were worthless, no facts, all lies.... so full of HATE and RAGE.
Trump Is Not A Lib or Conserv, He's a "Pragmatist." (someone who is practical and focused on reaching a goal. Has a straightforward, matter-of-fact approach and doesn't let emotion distract him or her
Back to Top
steve(ill) View Drop Down
Orange Level
Orange Level
Avatar

Joined: 11 Sep 2009
Location: illinois
Points: 41046
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote steve(ill) Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Jan 2019 at 7:39pm
National Institute on Drugs............ OLD DATA..
 
Brief Description

There are a variety of sources of information NIDA uses to monitor the prevalence and trends regarding drug abuse in the United States. The resources below cover a variety of drug related issues, including information on drug usage, emergency room data, prevention and treatment programs, and other research findings.

Costs of Substance Abuse

Abuse of tobacco, alcohol, and illicit drugs is costly to our Nation, exacting more than $740 billion annually in costs related to crime, lost work productivity and health care.**

  Health Care Overall Year Estimate Based On
Tobacco1,2 $168 billion $300 billion 2010
Alcohol3 $27 billion $249 billion 2010
Illicit Drugs4,5 $11 billion $193 billion 2007
Prescription Opioids6 $26 billion $78.5 billion 2013
Trump Is Not A Lib or Conserv, He's a "Pragmatist." (someone who is practical and focused on reaching a goal. Has a straightforward, matter-of-fact approach and doesn't let emotion distract him or her
Back to Top
Lonn View Drop Down
Orange Level
Orange Level
Avatar

Joined: 16 Sep 2009
Location: Назарово,Russia
Points: 24170
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Lonn Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Jan 2019 at 7:07am
Originally posted by TramwayGuy TramwayGuy wrote:

“he's said before. (Meg Kelly/The Washington Post)

By Salvador Rizzo
January 9
The first misleading statement in President Trump’s Oval Office address Tuesday night came in the first sentence.

Trump, addressing a national television audience from behind his desk, warned of a “security crisis at the southern border” — even though the number of people caught trying to cross illegally is near 20-year lows. BS

Another false claim came moments later, when Trump said border agents “encounter thousands of illegal immigrants trying to enter our country” every day, though his administration puts the daily average for 2018 in the hundreds. A few sentences later, he said 90 percent of the heroin in the United States comes across the border with Mexico, ignoring the fact that most of the drugs come through legal entry points MORE BS and wouldn’t be stopped by the border wall that he is demanding as the centerpiece of his showdown with Democrats.

Over the course of his nine-minute speech, Trump painted a misleading and bleak picture of the situation at the U.S.-Mexico border. He pumped up some numbers, exaggerated the public safety risks of immigration and repeated false claims regarding how to fund a border wall. OPINION OF LEFTIST NEWS MEDIA DOES NOT MEAN FACT CHECKING

The appearance, coming as a partial federal government shutdown resulting from the wall fight enters its third week, underscored the extent to which Trump has relied on false and misleading claims to justify what has long been his signature political issue.

One false claim noticeably absent from the speech was the assertion made by the president and many of his allies in recent days that terrorists are infiltrating the country by way of the southern border. Fact-checkers and TV anchors, including those on Fox News, spent days challenging the truthfulness of the claim. DID YOU EVEN WATCH AND LISTEN TO WHAT THE BORDER AGENTS SAID YESTERDAY?


Below are the truths behind Trump’s claims from the Oval Office address:

“Tonight I am speaking to you because there is a growing humanitarian and security crisis at our southern border.” WHY DON'T YOU GO SEE FOR YOURSELF TRANNY

By any available measure, there is no new security crisis at the border.

Apprehensions of people trying to cross the southern border peaked most recently at 1.6 million in 2000 and have been in decline since, falling to just under 400,000 in fiscal 2018. THAT ONLY MEANS THEY ARE NOT CAUGHT The decline is partly because of technology upgrades; tougher penalties in the wake of the 9/11 terrorist attacks; a decline in migration rates from Mexico; and a sharp increase in the number of Border Patrol officers. The fiscal 2018 number was up from just over 300,000 apprehensions at the U.S.-Mexico border for fiscal 2017, the lowest level in more than 45 years. 300,000 IS AN OK NUMBER FOR YOU TRANNY?

There are far more cases of travelers overstaying their visas than southern border apprehensions. SO?In fiscal 2017, the Department of Homeland Security reported 606,926 suspected in-country overstays, or twice the number of southern border apprehensions. In fiscal 2016, U.S. officials reported 408,870 southern border apprehensions and 544,676 suspected in-country overstays. GOOD POINT, LET THE DEPORTATIONS BEGIN!

While overall numbers of migrants crossing illegally are down, since 2014 more families from El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras have begun to trek to the United States in search of safer conditions or economic opportunities, creating a humanitarian crisis. SO THERE IS A HUMANITARIAN CRISIS OR THERE ISN'T? ARE YOU CONFUSED?

“Record numbers of migrant families are streaming into the United States, overwhelming border agents and leaving holding cells dangerously overcrowded with children, many of whom are falling sick,” The Washington Post reported Jan. 5. “Two Guatemalan children taken into U.S. custody died in December.”


“Every day Customs and Border Patrol agents encounter thousands of illegal immigrants trying to enter our country.”

Southern border apprehensions in fiscal 2018 averaged 30,000 a month (or 1,000 a day). They ticked up in the first two months of fiscal 2019, but it’s a stretch to say “thousands” a day. Better to say “hundreds.” ALL YOU EVER HAVE IS SEMANTICS

“America proudly welcomes millions of lawful immigrants who enrich our society and contribute to our nation, but all Americans are hurt by uncontrolled illegal migration. It strains public resources and drives down jobs and wages. Among those hardest hit are African Americans and Hispanic Americans.”

Some context here: In general, economists say illegal immigration tends to affect less-educated and low-skilled American workers the most, which disproportionately encompasses black men and recently arrived, low-educated legal immigrants, including Latinos.


The U.S. Commission on Civil Rights in 2010 found that illegal immigration has tended to depress wages and employment for black men. However, there are other factors at play, and “halting illegal immigration is not a panacea even for the problem of depressed wage rates for low-skilled jobs,” the commission found. WHO'S ON THE COMMISSION? I SAW FIRST HAND HOW MY OLD FACTORY JOB WAS DASHED FROM $16/HR TO $10/HR BECAUSE OF LEGAL AND ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION. TRY AGAIN!

The consensus among economic research studies is that the impact of immigration is primarily a net positive for the U.S. economy BS and to workers overall, especially over the long term. BS According to a comprehensive 2016 report by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine on the economic impacts of the U.S. immigration system, studies on the impact of immigration showed “the seemingly paradoxical result that although larger immigration flows may generate higher rates of unemployment in some sectors, overall, the rate of unemployment for native workers declines.” MORE BS

“Our southern border is a pipeline for vast quantities of illegal drugs, including meth, heroin, cocaine and fentanyl. Every week, 300 of our citizens are killed by heroin alone, 90 percent of which floods across from our southern border.”

In 2017, more than 15,000 people died of drug overdoses involving heroin in the United States, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. That works out to about 300 a week. YOU FORGOT A FEW DRUGS


But while 90 percent of the heroin sold in the United States comes from Mexico, virtually all of it comes through legal points of entry. BS IT COMES ACROSS THE RIVER OR DESERT OR OPEN COUNTRY AND IS CAUGHT AT CHECK POINTS. DON'T BELIEVE IT? ASK A BORDER AGENT!“A small percentage of all heroin seized by [Customs and Border Protection] along the land border was between Ports of Entry (POEs),” the Drug Enforcement Administration said in a 2018 report. So Trump’s wall would do little to halt drug trafficking. Trump’s repeated claim that the wall would stop drug trafficking is a Bottomless Pinocchio claim.BS

“In the last two years, ICE officers made 266,000 arrests of aliens with criminal records, including those charged or convicted of 100,000 assaults, 30,000 sex crimes, and 4,000 violent killings. Over the years, thousands of Americans have been brutally killed by those who illegally entered our country, and thousands more lives will be lost if we don’t act right now.”

Trump warns about dangerous criminals, but the numbers he’s citing involve a mix of serious and nonviolent offenses such as immigration violations. U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement reports yearly arrest totals without breaking down the type of offense, which could be anything from homicide to a DUI to illegal entry. WHY DON'T YOU CHECK THE PRISON POPULATION?


Notice how Trump switches quickly from the 266,000 arrests over two years to charges and convictions: “100,000 assaults, 30,000 sex crimes, and 4,000 violent killings.” In many cases, the people arrested face multiple counts, so that switch gives a confusing picture.

In fiscal 2018, ICE conducted 158,581 administrative arrests for civil immigration violations. The agency’s year-end report says two-thirds (105,140) of those involved people with criminal convictions and one-fifth (32,977) involved people with pending criminal charges. Of the 143,470 administrative arrests in 2017, 74 percent involved people with criminal records and 15.5 percent involved people who had pending charges. But these totals cover all types of offenses — including illegal entry or reentry.

In the fiscal 2018 breakdown, 16 percent of all the charges and convictions were immigration and related offenses.


“Last month, 20,000 migrant children were illegally brought into the United States, a dramatic increase. These children are used as human pawns by vicious coyotes and ruthless gangs.”

No government statistic tracks children smuggled in by bad actors, “coyotes” or drug gangs. What Trump is referring to is CBP’s number for family unit apprehensions and unaccompanied minors. The family unit by definition must include at least one parent or legal guardian and one minor. (There’s a separate figure for unaccompanied alien children.)

DHS spokeswoman Katie Waldman said the December total for apprehensions of unaccompanied children and those with family members was 19,313. But it’s wrong to describe it as a statistic that represents children being smuggled into the country.

Trump describes this as children being smuggled in by coyotes or gangs, but border officials screen for false claims of parentage. To imply as Trump does that a child’s mother, father or legal guardian is or hired a smuggler, coyote or gang member in all of these cases is wrong.

(Correction: A previous version of this story said Trump understated the number of migrant children apprehended last month at the southern border, based on November data. The December data, which DHS released after Trump’s speech, show the number is around 20,000, as Trump said. The story incorrectly described the way U.S. Customs and Border Protection counts children and family members who are caught attempting to cross the border, or “family unit apprehensions.” The term refers to a monthly tally published by the agency of the total number of children, parents or legal guardians who are caught together at the border, not the number of families.)

“Furthermore, we have asked Congress to close border security loopholes so that illegal immigrant children can be safely and humanely returned back home.”

The Trump administration considers the Flores settlement agreement a loophole. That policy requires the government to release unaccompanied immigrant children who are caught crossing the border within 20 days to family members, foster homes or “least restrictive” settings.

The president also wants to tighten U.S. asylum laws generally and the Trafficking Victims Protection Reauthorization Act, with the goal of restricting some immigrants' opportunities to file asylum petitions. Trump describes these asylum provisions as “border security loopholes,” but supporters call them core provisions of U.S. laws that cover refugees.

“Finally, as part of an overall approach to border security, law enforcement professionals have requested $5.7 billion for a physical barrier. At the request of Democrats, it will be a steel barrier rather than a concrete wall.”

Trump suggests that Democrats requested a steel barrier rather than a concrete wall, but the proposed switch to steel was an idea the Trump administration brought up. No Democrats are on record demanding a steel barrier along the U.S.-Mexico border.

“This is just common sense. The border wall would very quickly pay for itself. The cost of illegal drugs exceeds $500 billion a year, vastly more than the $5.7 billion we have requested from Congress.”

Trump tweeted a similar claim in March, citing a study from the Center for Immigration Studies, which supports more restrictive immigration policies. Essentially, the claim that the wall pays for itself turns on three numbers: a) estimated savings from each undocumented immigrant blocked by the wall, b) the total number of undocumented immigrants stopped over 10 years and, and c) the cost of the wall.

It’s (a) $75,000 multiplied by (b) 160,000 to 200,000 equals (c) $12 billion to $15 billion. So, if the wall actually costs $25 billion, the number of undocumented immigrants halted by the wall would need to be doubled, or one has to assume it would take 20 years to earn the money back. But other experts offer different estimates for each of those numbers.

Plus, as we’ve previously reported, the wall would do little to stop drugs from entering the United States, since they primarily come in through legal points of entry, making the cost of illegal drugs irrelevant to this issue.

“The wall will also be paid for indirectly by the great new trade deal we have made with Mexico.”

This is a Four Pinocchio claim. During the campaign, Trump more than 200 times promised Mexico would pay for the wall, which the administration says would cost at least $18 billion. Now he says a minor reworking of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) will earn enough money for pay for the wall.

This betrays a misunderstanding of economics. Countries do not “lose” money on trade deficits, so there is no money to earn; the size of a trade deficit or surplus can be determined by other factors besides trade. Congress must still appropriate the money, and the trade agreement has not been ratified.

“Senator Chuck Schumer, who you will be hearing from later tonight, has repeatedly supported a physical barrier in the past, along with many other Democrats. They changed their mind only after I was elected president.”

Schumer, Hillary Clinton and many other Democrats voted for the Secure Fence Act of 2006, which authorized building a fence along nearly 700 miles of the border between the United States and Mexico. But the fence they voted for is not as substantial as the wall Trump is proposing. Trump himself has called the 2006 fence a “nothing wall.”

Michelle Ye Hee Lee and Meg Kelly contributed to this repor
I'M NOT READING THE READ OF YOUR BS BECAUSE I KNOW IT'S ALL BS.
Mohammed was a murdering child rapist

Back to Top
steve(ill) View Drop Down
Orange Level
Orange Level
Avatar

Joined: 11 Sep 2009
Location: illinois
Points: 41046
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote steve(ill) Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Jan 2019 at 7:13am
YEA....... the HATE and RAGE just rolls out of that article... If the bummer had given that speech 4 years ago they would have claimed it was THE BEST SPEECH EVER GIVEN..
 
POOR IGNORANT PISSERS.......... you can see right thru their HATE and RAGE BULL  SH*T.
Trump Is Not A Lib or Conserv, He's a "Pragmatist." (someone who is practical and focused on reaching a goal. Has a straightforward, matter-of-fact approach and doesn't let emotion distract him or her
Back to Top
TramwayGuy View Drop Down
Orange Level
Orange Level


Joined: 19 Jan 2010
Location: Northern NY
Points: 5172
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote TramwayGuy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Jan 2019 at 7:24am
You guys keep complaining that ‘I didn’t post the source’; and when I do, it is a trigger for you to insult me personally.   Then you try to refute it with.....nothing.
Back to Top
Bob D. (La) View Drop Down
Orange Level
Orange Level
Avatar

Joined: 12 Sep 2009
Location: Louisiana
Points: 18877
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Bob D. (La) Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Jan 2019 at 7:34am
Originally posted by TramwayGuy TramwayGuy wrote:

You guys keep complaining that ‘I didn’t post the source’; and when I do, it is a trigger for you to insult me personally.   Then you try to refute it with.....nothing.



It is being refuted with nothing, (your words), because there is nothing delivered by you.
When you find yourself in a hole,PUT DOWN THE SHOVEL!!!
Back to Top
steve(ill) View Drop Down
Orange Level
Orange Level
Avatar

Joined: 11 Sep 2009
Location: illinois
Points: 41046
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote steve(ill) Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Jan 2019 at 7:57am
POOR IGNORANT PISSER....... we just spent a DOZEN POSTS shooting holes in your BULL SH*T story... You morons are so easily fooled by the liberTARD Media.. Your HATE and RAGE has blinded you to all FACTS concerning TRUMP.
Trump Is Not A Lib or Conserv, He's a "Pragmatist." (someone who is practical and focused on reaching a goal. Has a straightforward, matter-of-fact approach and doesn't let emotion distract him or her
Back to Top
Lonn View Drop Down
Orange Level
Orange Level
Avatar

Joined: 16 Sep 2009
Location: Назарово,Russia
Points: 24170
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Lonn Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Jan 2019 at 8:23am
JUST IN SOUTH TEXAS, OVER 450 APPREHENSIONS IN ONE DAY! HOW MANY GOT PAST!!!

TRAMMY CAN YOU DISPUTE THIS VIDEO?
Mohammed was a murdering child rapist

Back to Top
JC(WI) View Drop Down
Orange Level
Orange Level
Avatar

Joined: 11 Sep 2009
Location: wisconsin
Points: 25332
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote JC(WI) Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Jan 2019 at 1:07pm
Trannie will say this is all made up because peelosie and chucky cheesy peed and creamed in his ears said that it was not so...
He who says there is no evil has already deceived himself
Back to Top
 Post Reply Post Reply
  Share Topic   

Forum Jump Forum Permissions View Drop Down

Forum Software by Web Wiz Forums® version 11.10
Copyright ©2001-2017 Web Wiz Ltd.

This page was generated in 0.109 seconds.


Help Support the
Unofficial Allis Forum